Friday, February 20, 2009

A Blog-Based Meyers-Briggs Type Indicator

A colleague just pointed me to this site, Typeanalyzer, which claims it can identify the Meyers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) of a blog's author by examining his or her blog.

I'm a big fan of the MTBI at work because it really helps people understand, and eventually embrace, differences:
  • It's not that Dennis (ESTJ) doesn't trust me. He's just an S and thus he needs more data than I do to justify a decision. And sometimes, his S will save me because once in a while his data will trump my intuition.
  • It's not that Andrew (ENTP) is a bad person. He's just a P, and thus I can be certain that he will never finish anything unless I put a gun to his head. And, while that can be irritating, it's manageable and I definitely appreciate the creativity and broken-field running that come along with his P.
Typeanalyzer's verdict for the Mark Logic CEO Blog was dead right: INTJ.

Valleywag Calls Hubris on Google SVP

Check out this Valleywag post, The Height of Google's Hubris, which calls out Google SVP of product management Jonathan Rosenberg, for his 4,492-word self-described "treatise," pretentiously entitled From the Height of this Place, posted recently on the official Google blog.

From Valleywag:
Jonathan Rosenberg, a top executive at Google, has let loose with a 4,492-word treatise on the future quoting presidents and deriding "the faceless scribes of drivel." It is the best window yet into Google's egomania. [...]

What marks the essay is the pervasive reek of superiority — that Google knows best, and that Googlers can impose their values on the world.
What marks me most is that Google is paying SVPs to write 4,492-word internal email "treatises" that start ...
Today is Presidents' Day here in the United States, when we honor the birthdays of two of our country's greatest leaders, George Washington and Abraham Lincoln. A few weeks ago many of us were lucky to witness, either in person or via TV or the web, a masterful inauguration speech by the newest President, Barack Obama. The speech was rife with poignant points and subtle historical allusions: "We the people" came directly from the US Constitution, while "all are equal, all are free, and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness" echoes both the Declaration of Independence and Abraham Lincoln's Gettysburg Address. (Many of these nuances were only revealed to me upon reading the transcript.)

As expected, President Obama aptly captured the wary mood of the nation. After all, we are in the midst of what is likely the worst economic situation of our lifetimes. In the US alone, 2.6M people lost their jobs in 2008, followed by nearly 600,000 more last month, and on the Monday following the inauguration companies around the world, including Caterpillar, Pfizer, ING, and Phillips announced job cuts totaling over 75,000. Add to that our dependence on fossil fuels, the resulting (and accelerating) climate change, and national security concerns, and you can feel the gravity of this pivotal moment.
... and which fellow Googlers evidently like so much that they encourage him to post it publicly.

First, for a global company, it's horifically US-centric. (There's a difference between writing for a global audience and reminding people that you know you are writing for the US audience, yet communicating worldwide quand meme.)

Second, uh, how do I put this? Who are you again? Is this George Will, Thomas Friedman, or Paul Krugman writing? I'm sorry, no. It's the VP of product management. That's right. OK. And what does this have to do with what's coming in the next release?

It continues:
In fact, since the challenges the world faces are, to a large degree, information problems, I believe the Internet is one of the "new instruments" that the President and the world can count on. And how do a great many people use the Internet? What is the first place many of them go when they conduct research, seek answers, do their work and communicate with their friends and family? Google. Ours is much more than a passing role in this next phase of history, rather we have the responsibility and duty to make the Internet as great as it can possibly be.
Do I detect some noblesse oblige?

Just when it seems that everybody and his brother (e.g., Time) has answer for how to save newspapers (except, of course, the newspapers), Google decides to weigh in:
The experience of consuming news on the web today fails to take full advantage of the power of technology. It doesn't understand what users want in order to give them what they need. When I go to a site like the New York Times or the San Jose Mercury, it should know what I am interested in and what has changed since my last visit. If I read the story on the US stimulus package only six hours ago, then just show me the updates the reporter has filed since then (and the most interesting responses from readers, bloggers, or other sources). If Thomas Friedman has filed a column since I last checked, tell me that on the front page.

Beyond that, present to me a front page rich with interesting content selected by smart editors, customized based on my reading habits (tracked with my permission). Browsing a newspaper is rewarding and serendipitous, and doing it online should be even better. This will not by itself solve the newspapers' business problems, but our heritage suggests that creating a superior user experience is the best place to start.
First, the best thing about the Google user interface is that there's so little of it, a testament to Google's self-discipline and to the reality that keyword search doesn't need much UI (compared to say BI or ERP). Second, I'd challenge the notion that anybody wants to go to a newspaper site and have it remember preferences et cetera. I don't know about you, but I don't want to go to a newspaper site at all. I love news. I love reading. But I want the news to come to me, (today at least) in my RSS reader.

User-generated content then gets thrown under -- or should I say, sent to the back of -- the bus:
Of course, the greatest user experience is pretty useless if there's nothing good to read, a truism that applies not just to newspapers but to the web in general. Just like a newspaper needs great reporters, the web needs experts. When it comes to information, not all of it is created equal and the web's future depends on attracting the best of it. There are millions of people in the world who are truly experts in their fields — scientists, scholars, artists, engineers, architects — but a great majority of them are too busy being experts in their fields to become experts in ours. They have a lot to say but no time to say it.

Systems that facilitate high-quality content creation and editing are crucial for the Internet's continued growth, because without them we will all sink in a cesspool of drivel. We need to make it easier for the experts, journalists, and editors that we actually trust to publish their work under an authorship model that is authenticated and extensible, and then to monetize in a meaningful way. [...]

We won't (and shouldn't) try to stop the faceless scribes of drivel, but we can move them to the back row of the arena. As Harry Truman said in 1949, "We are aided by all who want relief from the lies of propaganda — who desire truth and sincerity."
This, of course, raises enormous questions about who we trust, who we don't, who gets to decide, and most importantly, who's "we"? Ironically today, courtesy of PageRank, the motto is not "in Google we trust" but "in other webmasters we trust." The post seems to suggests that Google may be placing more trust in itself going forward. Not good.

ERP and BI get their turn under the bus next:
But as powerful as it can be in politics, data has the potential to be even more transformational in business. Oil fueled the Industrial Revolution, but data will fuel the next generation of growth. One of the largely unheralded by-products of the Internet era is how it has made the power of the most sophisticated analytical tools available to the smallest of businesses. Traditionally, business software packages have treated data reporting as a second class citizen. Here is my cool new feature, they say. Oh, you want to know how many people use it? You want the flexibility to organize and assess this data in ways that work best for you? Well, let us tell you about the analytics module! It's only tens of thousands of dollars more (not counting the 18% annual maintenance fee in perpetuity ... sucker!!)
In reality, the natural order was first to build the operational systems that let you collect the data and then provide tools to analyze it. The latter without the former would have been worthless. There was no conspiracy, myopia, or ignorance. First, people built MRP and then ERP and then SFA and then CRM systems. As those were implemented, a mass of new data became available to analyze, data warehousing took off, and both ERP and independent BI vendors built tools to analyze it.

He continues:
Fortunately that's not Google, nor can it ever be. All of our products should reflect our bias toward giving our customers, users, and partners as much data as possible - and letting them do with it what they wish. Then they can run their business like we do, by making decisions based on facts, not opinions. Here at Google the words of every colleague, from associates to vice presidents, carry the same weight so long as they are backed by data. (If you don't think we live up to this standard then please feel free to correct me ... but you better have the facts to prove it!!!)
(I hate to be anal but "nor can it ever be" is speculation and not data-based.)

I thought I spent from 1995-2004 at Business Objects enabling companies to make fact-based decisions leveraging the data collected in their operational systems. Hmm. I guess I was doing something else, because until Google "invented" the idea, I guess it wasn't actually happening.

This next one surprised even me. Who'd have guessed that Google has, of all things, SAS envy?
Hal Varian likes to say that the sexy job in the next ten years will be statisticians. After all, who would have guessed that computer engineers would be the cool job of the 90s? When every business has free and ubiquitous data, the ability to understand it and extract value from it becomes the complimentary scarce factor. It leads to intelligence, and the intelligent business is the successful business, regardless of its size. Data is the sword of the 21st century, those who wield it well, the Samurai.
Since I'm running short of both time and cynicism I need to stop here. Be aware (or amazed) that I'm stopping some 1,400 words short of the suitably haughty ending:
It seems only fitting to conclude this Presidents' Day treatise, which began by quoting our 44th president, with a statement from our first. And so, having thus imparted to you my sentiments as they have been awakened by the occasion which brings us together, I shall take my present leave.
Doesn't this guy have some R&D projects to go kill?

-- Your Faceless Drivel-Generating Scribe
//Dave

PS: See Ries and Trout's Immutable Rule #18: Success leads to arrogance and arrogance to failure.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Venture Capital Confidence at Record Low

I just heard about this index today, the Silicon Valley Venture Capitalist Confidence Index, which measures the confidence of Silicon Valley venture capitalists on a scale from 1-5.

In 4Q08, the index hit its fifth consecutive quarterly new low at 2.77 out of 5. The index was started in 1Q04.
Excerpt from the conclusion:
In summary, the continuing fall-out from the credit crisis and downward economic spiral (lack of exits, squeezed capital commitments, and fewer customers for portfolio firm products) has led to the lowest level of venture capitalists’ confidence in the 5 year history of this quarterly survey and report.

However, it is worth recalling that the Silicon Valley venture industry endured the 2000/2001 Internet bubble and bust. And current increasingly stringent financing criteria and lower valuations may mean that many of today’s investments will eventually earn significantly positive returns. Further, a confidence in the resilience of entrepreneurs, and the unique support structure of the Silicon Valley entrepreneurial eco-system remains strong. This underlying confidence coupled with the belief that even stronger enterprises, tried by fire in this harsh environment, will emerge more vibrant and sustainable when the broader economic environment finally recovers, leaves cause for optimism in the long term resilience of the Silicon Valley venture capital and entrepreneurial machine.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

The Economist on the Kindle: Yes and No

See this story in The Economist, entitled Well Read, about Amazon and the Kindle, undoubtedly sparked by the recent Kindle 2.0 launch. The story starts with some history, making a point I'd not previously heard about overall book consumption by Kindle users:
So far, says Mr Kessel [a member of Amazon's Kindle team], this does not seem to spell the end of paper books, since Kindle users buy just as many bound books as before, so that their total consumption of books goes up by 2.6 times.
Frankly, I found this surprising because, based on my personal experience, I think* I buy more total books (e.g., the Whispernet-enabled impulse purchase on the tarmac at JFK), but I believe I am buying fewer print books:
  • I love that I can read the standard Grisham, Baldacci et alia novels without the guilt of having to discard (or dubiously recycle) a physical book when I'm done
  • I love the pricing. I think I'm saving $5 to $10 every time I buy a Kindle book.
  • In fact, I even bought my first "book I want to keep" on my Kindle (Disrupting Class by Clayton Christensen, saving only $3.63 relative to print). I did this even though it felt odd because (1) I believe Kindle ownership is more permanent than physical book ownership (e.g., I should be able to make backups and if Amazon were smart they'd make such a service clearly available) and (2) with the Kindle I can carry my library with me.
Now the last point brings in the inevitable comparison exercise between iPod/Apple and Kindle/Amazon. The Economist weighs in here as well:
On the one hand the iPod, Apple’s now legendary music-player, and its associated iTunes store opened up a new market for legal digital-music downloads. On the other hand, the iPod accelerated the decline in CD sales and shifted power from record labels to Apple. Will the Kindle similarly put Amazon in a dominant position, while weakening publishers?
Their first conclusion is correct only for the inclusion of the word "narrative:"
This is unlikely. Books, says Penguin’s Mr Makinson, are different from music. Sales of CDs were harmed because iPod users could “unbundle” the albums that record labels had forced on them, and download only the songs they wanted. By contrast, there is no obvious reason to unbundle narrative books into individual chapters or paragraphs.
Yes, for narrative works it's unlikely that you'd only want to buy one chapter, but lots of books aren't narrative. Buying a cookbook to get a few recipes is the same as buying a CD to get a few songs. As is buying a travel guide to find a few hotels and restaurants. Or buying an SAT prep guide to get a few practice tests. Or buying a home gardening book to save one plant. Or buying a semantic web book to read the first few chapters.

Just as CDs were more unbundleable than people thought (songs were obvious, a $2B ringtone industry for song fragments wasn't), so are books are also more unbundleable than you might think at first glance.

I don't believe The Economist's second conclusion either:
Nor is Amazon likely to achieve anything near Apple’s power over the music industry.
I think the Kindle is the strategy whereby Amazon will achieve precisely that -- and the only thing I see stopping it is the Google Books settlement, where Google gets a shot at creating an Amazon-class bookstore for books -- and derivatives thereof.

I have two other thoughts to share on the Kindle.

First, I fail to understand why no one makes the critical point of "device psychology." I don't like my laptop as a device; it's slow and cumbersome. It takes forever to start. It always needs maintenance. And, most of all, it's a work device. Other than the normal immense pleasure I derive from working, I do not associate anything "fun" or "recreational" about my laptop.

Ergo, the dead last thing I want to do is take my laptop in bed or to the beach and read a book on it. I feel quite differently about my Kindle. It is a fun device. It is a recreational device. And while it's a connected device, it's not one on which I can either be tempted (e.g., into reading email) or interrupted (e.g., getting a phone call). Technical advantages -- such as the important ability to read in broad daylight -- aside, it's a device that I'm happy to bring to bed or the beach. And I'm surprised that I see almost no one writing about this particular angle, and instead just comparing it to laptops and/or cellphones for e-reading.

My second thought is that I don't see why the whole book publishing value chain can't reconfigure as follows:
  • Market (before) = publisher + author + book production + book distribution
  • Market (after) = publisher + author
I see no reason why publishers and authors must lose in a world that lacks printed books. Publishers still add value by talent spotting, editing, and promotion. Authors still add value by creating content. I don't see why the non-need to have physical books created and shipped should effect the value chain in the other two areas.

I know things didn't work out this way for magazines, because I'd long held onto a flawed notion shaped by pre-Internet conventional magazine wisdom: "subscriptions pay for the physical product and advertising generates the profits." If that were true, I postulated, in the online world you should be able to eliminate both the subscription and the physical product at net-zero impact. Of course, that's not what happened: magazines kept the physical product and the costs associated with it, and online ads fetch only a fraction their print cousins. Lose/lose.

But I still wonder if the book value chain can't reconfigure in a way that simply wipes out the parts the we don't need (physical books) and keeps the part we do (e.g., publishers, editors, and authors). The biggest threat I see to that evolution is Amazon itself. Once/if the world moves to e-books, and if Amazon controls e-book distribution at that time, then it's not hard to see Amazon trying to dis-intermediate publishers out of business, which, by the way, they already do.

Footnote
* = any data miner will know that what people think they do and what they actually do aren't always the same.

Monday, February 16, 2009

Google Settlement: Implications for Publishers White Paper

I'm happy to announce the availability of a white paper on which we worked with information industry veteran Bill Rosenblatt of Giant Steps Media that analyzes the effects of the Google settlement with publishers, and identifies new opportunities that result from it.

From the introduction:
The first part of this white paper describes the Settlement Agreement in the litigation, including the Book Rights Registry, the initial set of business models that Google and publishers will implement, and the set of business models that the Settlement Agreement contemplates in the future.

The second part discusses the future opportunities for publishers, particularly those that depend on publishers’ ability to build XML-based content architectures and make content available in structured formats with standardized metadata. It then discusses the capabilities that will be necessary for publishers to adopt in order to take advantage of these opportunities, including systems, tools, processes, and standards adoption where appropriate. Of course, a growing number of publishers are already starting to adopt these capabilities.
From the start of the second section:
The future business models contemplated in Section 4.7 of the Settlement Agreement differ qualitatively from the way that Google currently works with publishers – mainly in that they include several opportunities that require the availability of content in structural rather than page-oriented formats.
I believe the agreement enables Google to challenge Amazon in the sale of online books (and importantly, derivatives thereof) and therefore that publishers need to think of Google not as only a discoverability channel, but also a distribution channel -- and ergo be ready to distribute their content in the way(s) that Google asks.

To me, this unsurprisingly suggests the need to store content in a centralized XML repository whereby it can quickly be repurposed, reformatted, and/or otherwise sliced-and-diced to enable experimentation about new and different ways to sell it.

John Kreisa from Mark Logic presented on the settlement with Bill Rosenblatt at last week's O'Reilly Tools of Change for Publishing conference and here is an article in Publisher's Weekly about the panel. The slides that they presented are below:



Bill Rosenblatt has blogged about the white paper and about the settlement itself on his Copyright and Technology blog.

You can download the white paper via the Mark Logic site (and be asked to provide some information) here. Or you can use the back door and download the paper directly via the Giant Steps site, here.


Friday, February 13, 2009

Keynote Added: Stephen Arnold to Appear at Mark Logic User Conference

Just a quick post to share the news that search expert and Beyond Search blogger Stephen Arnold will also appear as a keynote speaker the upcoming Mark Logic 2009 User Conference on May 12-14, 2009 in San Francisco.

Stephen is a deep search expert with a wickedly dry sense of humor. He's also both an informative and quite entertaining speaker. We're pleased to have him, and he provides one more great reason to register now for the conference. (The other is to save $300 by registering before the early bird cut-off in March.)

Stephen joins James Surowiecki author of The Wisdom of Crowds, Gartner research VP and distinguished analyst Whit Andrews, Mark Logic's vice presidents of engineering and product management Ron Avnur and Jason Monberg (sometimes known as Ronberg), and Dave Kellogg (i.e., me) CEO of Mark Logic and keeper of the Mark Logic CEO Blog as our currently announced keynote speakers.

I know this won't be the easiest year to attend conferences so register now to get a big discount, book travel now to keep the costs low, and then look forward to getting together at the conference in San Francisco.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

A Quick Plug for ClimatePath

My college friend Dave Rochlin just launched a new site called ClimatePath aimed at helping people offset their carbon footprint and conserve natural resources. The idea is pretty simple.

There's a basic carbon footprint calculator where you can calculate you own carbon footprint. Mine was north of 40 tons, mostly due to air travel. (Aside: Is this TMI? Is asking someone about their carbon footprint like asking their sign, or is it more personal? "Hi, my name is Dave I emit 40 tons/year of CO2, how about you?")

There's a collection of carbon-offsetting projects (e.g., preservation of Costa Rican rainforests). Each project comes with a cost for the offset. For example, the Costa Rican rainforests are a deal at $12/metric ton whereas the windmills in turkey come in at a relatively hefty $22.

And there's a checkout button where you can "offset your lifestyle" by mixing together a few projects to offset all or part of your carbon and then make a payment to do so. Note that all monies are donated to the ClimatePath Ecologic Fund which has applied to the IRS but not yet received approval to be a tax-deductible donation. (They say you can donate now and deduct later once/if they get their approval.)

In addition, the site provides information about conservation and aims to provide forums for discussion.

I know pretty little about this whole area so I have no idea who ClimatePath competes with and what the market value of 1 ton carbon offset should be. All I do know is that Dave's behind the site, he's a great guy, and that this whole topic will most certainly play an increasingly large part in our future.

So I bought my first carbon offset today. How about you?

Time Demonstrates Non-Understanding of Social Media

Every once in a while old media reminds us that it really doesn't understand new media. Consider, for example, this story by Claire Suddath in Time, 25 Things I Didn't Want to Know About You. The story, which I found thanks to Peter O'Kelly's Reality Check, ridicules the single hottest phenomenon on Facebook right now, The 25 Random Things About Me craze.

It probably doesn't help that I just did my own 25 Things on Monday, after resisting the craze for a few weeks. But I'm frankly amazed about two things:
  1. How mainstream media doesn't get new (in this case, social) media
  2. How brazen they are in their non-understanding. It's one thing to not get something; it's quite another to advertise it with diatribes.
Consider this excerpt:
Assuming it takes someone 10 minutes to come up with their list, this recent bout of viral narcissism has sent roughly 800,000 hours of worktime productivity down the drain. (Read "Does Facebook Replace Face Time or Enhance It?")

But it's just so stupid. Most people aren't funny, they aren't insightful, and they share way too much. Facebook is a loose social network; a "friend" on Facebook might translate to someone you'd barely recognize in real life. I don't care that my college roommate's sister is anemic or that my stepcousin's boyfriend gets nervous around old people (apparently he's afraid they're going to die)
A few quick responses:
  • Empirically, Claire's dead wrong because 25 Things is the hottest thing on Facebook right now. While she may not like the craze, the majority of people (and last I checked media was a majority-oriented business) do.
  • 25 Things is hot precisely because you can share arcane things about yourself with a loose collection of friends. Every Facebook user knows his/her 200-500 friends vary in proximity. They know this when they make their list. They also know that they (and their friends) might "overshare" which is half the fun of the exercise.
  • I particularly enjoyed the nuggets "most people aren't funny ... or insightful." Who reads Time again? You know, regular people, "most people." You know, the kind of people who are reading her story. Oops.
  • 25 Things is a great example of something that's impossible in traditional broadcast (print or video) media, where one identical story is sent to everyone. 25 Things is possible because of two things: user-generated content and social network awareness. Neither of which are available in traditional media. (Think: seek first to understand.)
Now the story does include a moderately funny list of 25 Things that Claire wishes she hadn't been told. This part of the story is fine. In fact, if that's all she did, it would have been a clever article. But including the general attack on social media was both unnecessary and a big mistake. Particularly, when cast from dead center of old media.

Lest the reader have any doubt that the Claire is new media hostile, she ends with this capper:
I can't believe I'm saying this, but I've finally found something more stupid than Twitter.
Maybe she should go and write a few newspaper articles that will be paid for by classified ads. Or, perhaps make a few buggy whips.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Beware United Airlines Red Carpet Club Autorenewal

Frequent travelers beware that United Airlines has added a sneaky new twist to the process of renewing your Red Carpet Club membership.

First you login to quickly renew your membership. Then, if you're astute, you notice some fine print above the confirm box that indicates your membership will autorenew. You then go to your member profile, trying to turn off the autorenewal. Here's the Kafkaesque profile screen that you get:

After wasting about 10 minutes, you realize that there is no way to turn off the autorenewal that they turned on without your permission. Then you go the terms and conditions and see that they're trying to burn autorenewal into the basic agreement:
Term: Red Carpet Club membership is an annual membership. Except for gift memberships, near the end of the membership period, memberships purchased with a credit card will automatically renew for the renewal term and the member’s credit card on file will be charged the membership fee unless the member has opted out of the automatic renewal feature. The member may cancel the membership and receive a refund of the membership fee before or within the first seven days of the new membership period, provided the member has not visited a Red Carpet Club or partner lounge during the new membership period.
I'm a business person. I get that renewing every member every year is a costly hassle. I get that United wants to just autorenew me. I even sorta get the default-it-on strategy, though I think United should do more to highlight it.

But what I don't get, what I find highly offensive, what I find completely out of tune with how to treat your customers is that there is no way to turn it off.

What United should do:
  • Ask you if they can turn it on
  • Incent you to do so -- e.g., with a 5% savings (over a potentially 5% uplifted price)
  • Maybe even default it on, but not sneakily
  • But provide an easy and clear way to turn it off.
Join me in complaining about this poor new policy by going here, clicking on the "Contact United" tab, scrolling down to Red Carpet Club, then hitting "email Red Carpet Club", then entering your message, then not getting trapped into non-submittal when it attempts to resolve your issue by searching their knowledgebase, and then reconfirming that yes, indeed, you really do want to send a message and not lookup something in a knowledgebase, and then finally hopefully get your message through -- i.e., routed to a presumably powerless call center operator in Bangalore.

Hey, do you see another problem in this process?

The Feasibility of Neuroimaging in Market Research

This post is a bit off topic for my blog, but since I do delve into matters of marketing, I thought I'd share a link to this paper, co-authored by old friend Richard Fuchs (who among things, ran Business Objects Asia-Pacific) entitled The Feasibility of Neuroimaging Methods in Market Research.

Excerpt:
McClure et al's (2004) highly publicised, and already mentioned, study comparing Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola is perhaps the most obvious example. In brief, the results of this study showed a greater recruitment of emotion and reward-related areas of the brain when subjects were told they were drinking Coca-Cola versus Pepsi. However, in blind taste-testing no differences between the two brands were observed. The direct relevance of such a finding to marketing practitioners is that it can be implied as very strong evidence of the `brand strength' of Coca-Cola.

While it is jumping the gun somewhat to draw the conclusion that Coca-Cola's marketing is `more effective', one is on more solid ground in suggesting that differences in Coca-Cola's marketing appear to be associated with differences in how consumers experience their use of the product. Given that the difference between the two products was found only when the brand was shown to the participants in conjunction with product usage, this is some evidence for the strength of marketing activities in driving consumer experience over and above concrete product characteristics.

Yet, this study is unable to tell us why, or which, marketing activities are effective. For example, it could be simply the fact that Coca-Cola has been a strong brand for far longer than Pepsi which has led to these observed effects, rather than any specific technique used by Coca-Cola, or it could be something as simple as the shape and colour of the packaging used to deliver the experience. Thus, more commercially-relevant research must be designed in such a way that the results of the research are directly interpretable and able to be related to a specific practical question.

Notes from Tom Siebel's Speech to the Alliance of Chief Executives

I saw Tom Siebel speak last week before a meeting of the Alliance of Chief Executives, giving a talk entitled From IT to ET, as in From Information Technology to Energy Technology. Here are some notes on the the talk.
  • Siebel now runs something called First Virtual Group, a diversified holding company that runs Siebel's real estate, agribusiness, financial investments, and philanthropic activities. "Think of it as a private equity firm with one investor."
  • He did a long riff contrasting the period from 1980 to 2000 with what he anticipates in the period from 2010 to 2030.
  • The 1980 to 2000 period was a paradise of government policies, efficient capital markets, and a free flow of capital to information technology that ultimately created a $1T information technology industry.
  • IT growth was 17% CAGR from 1980 to 2000. From 2000 it grows, he says, with GDP at a rate more like 3%. "The party here is over."
  • "It's done. Tell me the next step that's a replacement technology. Right now it's all bells and whistles."
  • The big picture from 2010 to 2030, he says, is (1) increased government regulation, (2) exponential population growth, (3) aging population, (4) increased demand for healthcare (of which 85% of an individual's lifetime consumption is spent in the last year of life), and (5) energy scarcity.
  • It took from 8000 BC to 1750 AD to grow the world population to 1B. In 2008, it's 6.5B. In 2028 it will be 9B. (Says the guy next to me: "and they're all going to need to buy things -- how is this bad?")
  • These trends make for the following opportunities: (1) food, (2) water, (3) energy, and (4) healthcare. He also mixes in some Malthusian FUD with an overtone of Limits to Growth.
  • Per-capita energy population is increasing exponential. So if you combine exponential population growth with exponential per-capita energy consumption, you end up with energy demand that is -- pardon the expression -- exponential squared.
  • All energy on Earth comes from the Sun. (I was waiting for him to add "and it's burning out" at this point, but he didn't.)
  • He then cited some interesting charts and graphs from a book called Fundamentals of Renewable Energy, which I think is this book though it might be this one.
  • He then discussed the concept of peak oil, an idea that I'd heard of but that I hadn't known was postulated in the 1950s by an engineer at Shell. By 2020/2030, says Siebel, this gets to be a real problem.
  • He then said we have two choices: drill / drill / drill or invent / invent / invent. (There are times when I wonder if I shouldn't have exploited my geophysics degree more.)
  • He then discussed two initiatives he's working on: (1) an Energy-Free Home Challenge that is soon to be formally announced, and (2) a new company called C3 that he was involved in founding.
  • The Energy-Free Home Challenge is a contest with $20M in prizes paid for by the Siebel Foundation (2007 annual report here). The goal is to find a way to build houses that consume net zero energy at the end of a year, built with no more expense than traditional construction methods. (This, by the way, sounds definitionally impossible, but who I am to nitpick a billionaire).
  • $5M will be awarded to enabling technologies (e.g., glazing, appliances). Ten finalists will be chosen and $2.5M will be awarded to them in prizes and $2.5M will be spent to build their homes. A grand prize of $10M will go to the winner. They will then build 90 additional energy-free homes (using whose money is unclear) in order to demonstrate the viability of an energy-free community.
  • C3 (which I think is related to the acronym carbon-conscious consumer) is a new company, run by Siebel veteran Pat House, that will make enterprise software to help companies manage their carbon footprint. The company started by calling together a panel of 29 experts during the summer of 2008. "Deliberations were concluded 12/08." C3 was founded last month, in 1/09. Operations will begin in 2/09. The product spec will be completed by summer 09. And -- if I heard correctly -- they will have demonstrable product one quarter later in fall 09. (And one heck of a development team if they can actually build a product in a quarter.)
  • C3's goal is to help companies "monitor, mitigate, and monetize" their carbon footprint. I tried for about 15 minutes to find a website for the firm and failed. If you find one, let me know via a comment and I'll link it here.
  • Almost to the point of comedy Siebel strained to not position C3 as an information technology company, despite the fact that it will sell enterprise software. "C3 is an energy tech company." "IT is incidental to C3." "C3 will not have an IT rate of growth." (How quickly they turn.)
  • And the capper: "My closest relation to information technology in the last 4 years has been selling Oracle stock every quarter."
Overall, it was an interesting speech and I thank Tom for taking the time to give it. I like the idea behind C3, though I think it *is* an information technology company and am not afraid to say so.

I think the Energy-Free Home Challenge is interesting and it begs the question: given $20M, what is the most effective way to stimulate innovation? Contests with prizes? Grants to scientists? Venture capital investments? I don't know the answer and since it's not my money, I don't need to. But I am happy Siebel's giving it a try and I'm sure that if if produces even a few innovations that the money will have been well spent.

I'd also add that while Siebel didn't talk about it at the event, that I think what he's doing with The Meth Project is both quite creative and sadly quite necessary.

Monday, February 09, 2009

Top 5 Predictions for Publishers in 2009 Webinar

Come to a webinar next week that Mark Logic is sponsoring entitled Gilbane's Top 5 Predictions for Publishers in 2009 featuring speaker Steve Paxhia, lead analyst with The Gilbane Group.

Steve will discuss trends from his upcoming report, entitled "Digital Platforms and Technologies for Book Publishers: Implementations Beyond eBook," where he identifies five important trends that are changing the landscape for information providers:
  • The Domain Strikes Back. Traditional publishers leverage their domain expertise to create premium, authoritative digital products that trump free and informed internet content.
  • Discoverability Overcomes Paranoia. Publishers realize the value in being discovered online, as research shows that readers do buy whole books and subscriptions based on excerpts and previews.
  • Custom, Custom, Custom. XML technology enables publishers to cost-effectively create custom products, a trend that has rapidly accelerated in the last six to nine months, especially in the educational textbook segment.
  • Communities Count. Communities will exert greater influence on digital publishing strategies, as providers engage readers to help build not only their brands but also their products.
  • Print on Demand. Print on demand increases in production quality and cost-effectiveness, leading to larger runs, more short-run custom products, and deeper backlists.
Learn more about these trends and find out if your company has the tools, processes, and attitudes required to exploit them in an uncertain market. All attendees will receive a copy of the completed research report from Gilbane.

For more information and/or to register, go here. Steve's a great speaker. I'm sure you find the webinar a great use of an hour.

Friday, February 06, 2009

MySQL's Mickos to Leave Sun

Marten Mickos, former CEO of MySQL and subsequently senior vice president of the database group at Sun Microsystems has announced his resignation.

Says Cnet:

"There is nothing in the MySQL business that is prompting me to leave," Mickos said. "Business is great. We just closed a multimillion-dollar deal recently that confirms much of the momentum we've made. We just closed our best quarter ever."
The story then goes on to include an excerpt from an internal email Mickos sent implying he was quitting primarily for personal reasons. But the Cnet story continues:

What Mickos doesn't say in the staff letter, but which I sensed in my conversation with him, is frustration at Sun's bureaucracy. As one of the most foundational personalities in open-source business, Mickos should have been given free rein to change Sun's fortunes. I don't think that he was given that freedom, based on other conversations I've had with Sun executives, and this clearly led to his desire to leave Sun.
This certainly wouldn't be the first time that an enterpreneurial type grew frustrated working within the context of much bigger company, post-acquisition. But Sun needs to be careful. They paid about $1B for MySQL and they are starting to lose some of the core staff.

See this Information Week story:

"I find it worrying that Sun would let him go. ... Marten believes in open source software, but he was pragmatic, he was able to monetize the open source space. If someone who wanted to be part of an open source business didn't find it that exciting to be at Sun, that's a message that doesn't help" Sun's effort to be recognized as a full-fledged, open source company, [Johnson] said. [Rod] Johnson [CEO of SpringSource] was tapped by Sun last November to sit on the executive committee of its Java Community Process, the body that regulates Java's development.

Thursday, February 05, 2009

See Mark Logic at O'Reilly Tools of Change

Come see Mark Logic at the O'Reilly Tools of Change for Publishing conference this week in New York at the Marriott Marquis, 2/9 - 2/11/09.
We'll also be exhibiting in booth #13 on the sixth floor of the hotel.

James Surowiecki and Whit Andrews to Keynote the Mark Logic User Conference

I'm pleased to announce that James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of Crowds, and Gartner Research Vice President Whit Andrews will be keynoting the Mark Logic User Conference in San Francisco on May 12-14, 2009.

The Wisdom of Crowds was a seminal book in the movement to Web 2.0, articulating the rationale for one core Web 2.0 concept (i.e., "harnessing collective intelligence") and popularizing ideas such as prediction markets like Intrade. In addition, Surowiecki is a staff writer at The New Yorker, writing a column entitled The Financial Page and a blog called The Balance Sheet. I'm very much looking forward to seeing him speak.

Speaking of which, I've seen Whit Andrews speak several times and he is one of the industry's foremost thinkers on search and information retrieval technologies. Whit is a delightful, thought-provoking speaker with a practical bent that comes from his daily interactions with companies that use search-related technologies to build both internal and customer-facing applications that leverage document content and other sources of unstructured information. Whit maintains an excellent blog at Gartner's blog network site, which you can find here.

I look forward to seeing you at the conference. I know this won't be the easiest year to get travel approvals so please take a few steps to ensure you can attend if you want to:
  • Book early: this will reduce your costs.
  • Submit a talk. If accepted, it will get you a free conference registration.
  • Book in groups: I think there's a discount for so doing.
  • Negotiate with your management. If you attend only one conference this year, make this one it.
  • Combine the trip with a vacation. California's great in May and maybe your boss will split the airfare.
  • Let us know if you're stuck. Tell your account manager (or me via this blog) and we'll try to brainstorm ways to help.
Again, I look forward to seeing you all and I know that the keynotes alone can justify the business value of attending the event.

Article 2.0 Contest Update: I Just Voted

I just sent in my final votes as a judge in the Elsevier Article 2.0 Contest, a contest set up by Elsevier to enable developers to create and submit applications that demonstrate the future of the scholarly journal article.

Judging wasn't easy as there were many excellent entries. Two were particularly ambitious in taking a mobile slant (one was even Android-based) on the future of the journal article.

Other judges included:
  • Alan Darnell from the University of Toronto libraries
  • Donald Lindberg, MD, from the National Library of Medicine
  • David Worlock, chief research fellow at Outsell
  • Jill O'Neil, director of planning and communication at NFAIS
I don't know where they are in tallying the scores, notifying the entrants, and announcing the results. I suspect all that will be coming in the next few weeks.

Meantime, thank you to all the entrants for your great work and thank you to Elsevier for inviting me as a judge.

Wednesday, February 04, 2009

A Lone Voice in the Wild: OpenTable Files for IPO

In a display of either iron will or total unawareness, OpenTable, the online restaurant reservations service, filed an S-1 on 1/30/09 for an initial public offering of its shares.

I'm proud to report that with revenues of $41M in 2007 (and seemingly on track to report revenues of $55M+ in 2008) that company is roughly in line with my assessment of the IPO window parameters of 50/50/0 -- i.e., $50M+ in revenues, 50% growth, and 0% profitability.

In fact, OpenTable is really on the edge of my window, just skooching above $50M in revenues, slightly low on growth (41% comparing the first three quarters of 2008 to 2007) and small net loss of $150K, which rounds to zero when divided by revenue.

Are they the leaders of the next wave of IPOs or are they simply crazy to consider an IPO in this market? I don't know. Perhaps they're both at the same time. But I've long argued that owning a share of Endeca (or OpenTable) is probably a lot less risky than, say, owning a share of General Motors or Lehman Brothers over the past year, so why not let John Q. Public again buy shares in early-stage growth companies? And there's always somebody who has to go first.

By closing the IPO window and/or raising the IPO bar, you lock John Q. Public out the market for those companies (while not necessarily reducing his risk) and, in some cases, force companies to M&A exits, because they either don't want to wait, or can't raise enough private capital, to reach a higher IPO bar.

TechCrunch covers the filing here. I've embedded the S-1 below:
Sec Filing

Hard Times Strategies for Publishers

I just stumbled into this pithy post from Greenhouse Associates, a boutique strategy consultancy that serves firms in the information and media market. The post, entitled Counter-Intuitive Tactics for Bad Times, lists seven non-obvious tactics that companies should consider when managing through tough times.

The list is below, along with a brief parenthetic comment on each item:
  • Invest in product development, not sales. (We like this one since MarkLogic Server is often sold to publishers as a platform for new product development.)
  • Turn salespeople into consultants. (A good idea at any time, but a necessary one in tough times.)
  • Put your customer first. (Ditto. Information companies have such a long history of product-centricity that the transition to customer/solution-centricity is a big one.)
  • Build value through relationships as well as products. (Complement product with service and the relationships built in the process.)
  • Look for evergreen and counter-cyclical sectors. (Example: bankruptcy and foreclosure lawyers are having a field day.)
  • Cut costs with a scalpel, not a hatchet. (My first reaction to an across-the-board cut is that management either couldn't or didn't take the time to figure out a more strategic way to do its job.)
  • Be ready for black swans. (Life is discontinuous. Yes.)
The full article is here.